Postmatch editorial

Algeria made the numbers look right

The final score was Botswana 1-3 Algeria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Amine Gouiri put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Algeria led Shots on target 2-4. Algeria also shaded Possession 32%-68%.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 55.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 65.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 1.66 against a fair line of 1.62. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

55.9%

Hit

Market result

Algeria

65.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Algeria

Botswana

Algeria

2

4

Possession

Algeria

Botswana

Algeria

32%

68%

Corners

Algeria

Botswana

Algeria

2

5

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

1.66

Fair odd

1.62

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.14u

That ticket matched the final outcome.