Postmatch editorial

Bosnia and Herzegovina turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-0 San Marino. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Edin Džeko put the first mark on the match 66', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bosnia and Herzegovina led Shots on target 6-0. Bosnia and Herzegovina also shaded Total shots 21-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Bosnia and Herzegovina the likeliest result at 64.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bosnia and Herzegovina at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.50 against a fair line of 1.47. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bosnia and Herzegovina

64.0%

Hit

Market result

Bosnia and Herzegovina

99.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina

San Marino

6

0

Total shots

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina

San Marino

21

5

Possession

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina

San Marino

67%

33%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.50

Fair odd

1.47

Edge

2.0%

Stake

4.16u

That ticket matched the final outcome.