Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Romania
Postmatch editorial
Bosnia and Herzegovina found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Romania. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Romania struck first through Daniel Bîrligea 17', but Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bosnia and Herzegovina led Corners 4-1. Bosnia and Herzegovina also shaded Total shots 16-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Romania the likeliest result at 49.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bosnia and Herzegovina at 39.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 7.01 against a fair line of 6.36. That translated to an edge of 10.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Romania
49.1%
Market result
Bosnia and Herzegovina
39.4%
BTTS
No
50.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Romania
4
1
Total shots
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Romania
16
9
Shots on target
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Romania
4
3
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
7.01
Fair odd
6.36
Edge
10.2%
Stake
0.59u
That ticket matched the final outcome.