Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina won after penalties.
1 - 1
AET
Italy
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Italy after extra time. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Haris Tabakovic 79', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bosnia and Herzegovina led Shots on target 11-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bosnia and Herzegovina also shaded Total shots 30-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Italy the likeliest result at 55.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Italy at 67.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.64 against a fair line of 1.60. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Italy
55.3%
Market result
Italy
67.1%
BTTS
Yes
54.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Italy
11
3
Total shots
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Italy
30
9
Corners
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Italy
10
4
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
1.64
Fair odd
1.60
Edge
2.5%
Stake
1.15u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.