Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 TSG Hoffenheim. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Robin Hack scored 90+1' for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Mönchengladbach led Shots on target 6-3. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 2-9.

Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 43.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 61.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 5.49 against a fair line of 5.04. That translated to an edge of 8.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

TSG Hoffenheim

43.2%

Miss

Market result

TSG Hoffenheim

61.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

56.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach

TSG Hoffenheim

6

3

Corners

TSG Hoffenheim

Borussia Mönchengladbach

TSG Hoffenheim

2

9

Possession

TSG Hoffenheim

Borussia Mönchengladbach

TSG Hoffenheim

44%

56%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

5.49

Fair odd

5.04

Edge

8.9%

Stake

0.40u

That ticket matched the final outcome.