Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund made the numbers look right
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder Bremen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Serhou Guirassy scored 83' for Borussia Dortmund.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Dortmund led Shots on target 8-3. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Total shots 18-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 66.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 70.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
66.5%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
70.9%
BTTS
No
50.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
8
3
Total shots
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
18
6
Possession
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
46%
54%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.