Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Heidenheim
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund made the numbers look right
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Heidenheim. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Waldemar Anton put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Dortmund led Corners 12-3. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Shots on target 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 67.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 79.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
67.8%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
79.1%
BTTS
No
51.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Heidenheim
12
3
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Heidenheim
5
3
Possession
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Heidenheim
65%
35%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.