Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Hamburger SV
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund made the numbers look right
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Hamburger SV struck first through Philip Otele 19', but Borussia Dortmund recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Dortmund led Total shots 24-4. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Shots on target 8-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 60.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 69.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.7%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
60.6%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
69.2%
BTTS
No
53.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
24
4
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
8
4
Corners
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
11
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.