Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
FC Augsburg
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund made the numbers look right
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Karim Adeyemi put the first mark on the match 13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Dortmund led Corners 12-2. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Total shots 16-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 64.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.56 against a fair line of 1.53. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
64.5%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
64.5%
BTTS
No
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
12
2
Total shots
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
16
7
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
FC Augsburg
5
3
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.56
Fair odd
1.53
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.24u
That ticket matched the final outcome.