Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Eintracht Frankfurt
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund made the numbers look right
The final score was Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Eintracht Frankfurt struck first through Can Uzun 2', but Borussia Dortmund recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Borussia Dortmund led Shots on target 8-4. Borussia Dortmund also shaded Corners 6-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result at 63.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Borussia Dortmund at 57.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 5.40 against a fair line of 4.96. That translated to an edge of 8.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Borussia Dortmund
63.9%
Market result
Borussia Dortmund
57.8%
BTTS
Yes
52.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
4
Corners
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
2
Total shots
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
12
9
Model edge
2
Mansionbet
Market odd
5.40
Fair odd
4.96
Edge
8.9%
Stake
0.42u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.