Postmatch editorial

Bologna turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Bologna 1-0 Udinese. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Federico Bernardeschi scored 75' for Bologna.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bologna led Shots on target 6-3. Udinese also shaded Corners 4-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 51.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 53.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.4%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

51.0%

Hit

Market result

Bologna

53.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bologna

Bologna

Udinese

6

3

Corners

Udinese

Bologna

Udinese

4

7

Possession

Udinese

Bologna

Udinese

46%

54%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.