Postmatch editorial

Roma settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Bologna 0-2 Roma. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Donyell Malen put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bologna led Total shots 10-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bologna also shaded Possession 60%-40%.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 39.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Roma at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.1%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

39.1%

Miss

Market result

Roma

46.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Bologna

Bologna

Roma

10

7

Possession

Bologna

Bologna

Roma

60%

40%

Shots on target

Bologna

Roma

2

2

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.