Postmatch editorial

The script held and Bologna delivered it

The final score was Bologna 2-0 Lecce. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Riccardo Orsolini scored 90+2' for Bologna.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bologna led Shots on target 4-1. Bologna also shaded Total shots 12-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 55.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

55.3%

Hit

Market result

Bologna

54.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bologna

Bologna

Lecce

4

1

Total shots

Bologna

Bologna

Lecce

12

6

Possession

Bologna

Bologna

Lecce

64%

36%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.