Postmatch editorial

Lazio flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Bologna 0-2 Lazio. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Bologna struck first through Riccardo Orsolini 51', but Lazio recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bologna led Total shots 15-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bologna also shaded Corners 2-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 44.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 43.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.4%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

44.1%

Miss

Market result

Bologna

43.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

55.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Bologna

Bologna

Lazio

15

9

Corners

Bologna

Bologna

Lazio

2

1

Shots on target

Lazio

Bologna

Lazio

4

5

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.