Postmatch editorial
Juventus found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Bologna 0-1 Juventus. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Juan Cabal put the first mark on the match 64', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bologna led Shots on target 4-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Juventus also shaded Corners 3-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 42.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 44.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bologna
42.3%
Market result
Juventus
44.2%
BTTS
Yes
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
BolognaBologna
Juventus
4
3
Corners
JuventusBologna
Juventus
3
4
Total shots
JuventusBologna
Juventus
11
13
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.