Postmatch editorial

The pre-match tension never quite broke

The final score was Bologna 3-3 Inter. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Andy Diouf 86', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Inter led Corners 1-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Inter also shaded Shots on target 3-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Inter the likeliest result at 54.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Inter at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.26 against a fair line of 2.17. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Inter

54.6%

Miss

Market result

Inter

47.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Inter

Bologna

Inter

1

4

Shots on target

Inter

Bologna

Inter

3

5

Possession

Inter

Bologna

Inter

45%

55%

Model edge

2

Mansionbet

Market odd

2.26

Fair odd

2.17

Edge

4.1%

Stake

0.79u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.