Postmatch editorial

Hellas Verona flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Bologna struck first through Jonathan Rowe 49', but Hellas Verona recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Hellas Verona led Shots on target 2-5. Bologna also shaded Possession 67%-33%.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 62.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 62.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.73 against a fair line of 1.68. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

62.0%

Miss

Market result

Bologna

62.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Hellas Verona

Bologna

Hellas Verona

2

5

Possession

Bologna

Bologna

Hellas Verona

67%

33%

Corners

Bologna

Bologna

Hellas Verona

5

3

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.73

Fair odd

1.68

Edge

3.0%

Stake

1.07u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.