Postmatch editorial

The pre-match tension never quite broke

The final score was Bologna 0-0 Cagliari. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Bologna nor Cagliari found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bologna led Shots on target 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bologna also shaded Corners 7-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 50.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 4.75 against a fair line of 4.39. That translated to an edge of 8.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

50.9%

Miss

Market result

Bologna

44.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bologna

Bologna

Cagliari

4

2

Corners

Bologna

Bologna

Cagliari

7

2

Possession

Bologna

Bologna

Cagliari

65%

35%

Model edge

2

Mansionbet

Market odd

4.75

Fair odd

4.39

Edge

8.2%

Stake

0.47u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.