Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Draw

The final score was Bolivia 0-0 Uruguay. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Bolivia nor Uruguay found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bolivia led Shots on target 7-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bolivia also shaded Total shots 32-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Uruguay the likeliest result at 40.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bolivia at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 3.40 against a fair line of 3.20. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uruguay

40.5%

Miss

Market result

Bolivia

37.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bolivia

Bolivia

Uruguay

7

0

Total shots

Bolivia

Bolivia

Uruguay

32

11

Corners

Bolivia

Bolivia

Uruguay

16

3

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

3.40

Fair odd

3.20

Edge

6.2%

Stake

0.59u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.