Postmatch editorial

Bolivia settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Bolivia 2-1 Suriname. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Suriname struck first through Liam van Gelderen 48', but Bolivia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bolivia led Shots on target 7-5. Bolivia also shaded Total shots 18-14.

Before kickoff, our model made Suriname the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bolivia at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Unibet. The market was offering 3.60 against a fair line of 3.38. That translated to an edge of 6.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Suriname

39.3%

Miss

Market result

Bolivia

41.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bolivia

Bolivia

Suriname

7

5

Total shots

Bolivia

Bolivia

Suriname

18

14

Possession

Bolivia

Bolivia

Suriname

57%

43%

Model edge

2

Unibet

Market odd

3.60

Fair odd

3.38

Edge

6.5%

Stake

0.55u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.