Postmatch editorial

The script held and Bolivia delivered it

The final score was Bolivia 2-0 Chile. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Enzo Monteiro scored 90' for Bolivia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bolivia led Shots on target 7-2. Bolivia also shaded Total shots 17-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Bolivia the likeliest result at 43.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bolivia at 58.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 6.20 against a fair line of 5.66. That translated to an edge of 9.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bolivia

43.9%

Hit

Market result

Bolivia

58.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

53.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bolivia

Bolivia

Chile

7

2

Total shots

Bolivia

Bolivia

Chile

17

12

Possession

Chile

Bolivia

Chile

47%

53%

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

6.20

Fair odd

5.66

Edge

9.5%

Stake

0.37u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.