Bolivia
Bolivia won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Brazil
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Bolivia 1-0 Brazil. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Miguelito put the first mark on the match 45+4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bolivia led Shots on target 10-3. Bolivia also shaded Total shots 23-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Brazil the likeliest result at 43.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Brazil at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.9%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Betsson. The market was offering 3.70 against a fair line of 3.47. That translated to an edge of 6.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Brazil
43.7%
Market result
Brazil
46.5%
BTTS
No
51.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
BoliviaBolivia
Brazil
10
3
Total shots
BoliviaBolivia
Brazil
23
10
Possession
BrazilBolivia
Brazil
42%
58%
Model edge
X
Betsson
Market odd
3.70
Fair odd
3.47
Edge
6.6%
Stake
0.53u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.