Bermuda
Trinidad and Tobago won after full-time.
0 - 3
FT
Trinidad and Tobago
Postmatch editorial
Trinidad and Tobago found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Bermuda 0-3 Trinidad and Tobago. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Dante Sealy put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Trinidad and Tobago led Shots on target 4-8. Trinidad and Tobago also shaded Total shots 10-22.
Before kickoff, our model made Bermuda the likeliest result at 42.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Trinidad and Tobago at 59.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 1.75 against a fair line of 1.70. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bermuda
42.8%
Market result
Trinidad and Tobago
59.5%
BTTS
Yes
61.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Trinidad and TobagoBermuda
Trinidad and Tobago
4
8
Total shots
Trinidad and TobagoBermuda
Trinidad and Tobago
10
22
Possession
Trinidad and TobagoBermuda
Trinidad and Tobago
47%
53%
Model edge
2
Cloudbet
Market odd
1.75
Fair odd
1.70
Edge
2.9%
Stake
1.05u
That ticket matched the final outcome.