Postmatch editorial

Bermuda made the numbers look right

The final score was Bermuda 5-0 Cayman Islands. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when J. Carpenter scored 85' for Bermuda.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bermuda led Shots on target 9-1. Bermuda also shaded Total shots 17-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Bermuda the likeliest result at 52.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bermuda at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cashpoint. The market was offering 1.30 against a fair line of 1.28. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bermuda

52.2%

Hit

Market result

Bermuda

84.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bermuda

Bermuda

Cayman Islands

9

1

Total shots

Bermuda

Bermuda

Cayman Islands

17

5

Corners

Bermuda

Bermuda

Cayman Islands

6

1

Model edge

1

Cashpoint

Market odd

1.30

Fair odd

1.28

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.94u

That ticket matched the final outcome.