Benin
Benin won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Zimbabwe
Postmatch editorial
Benin turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Benin 1-0 Zimbabwe. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Steve Mounié scored 77' for Benin.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Zimbabwe led Corners 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Benin also shaded Total shots 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Benin the likeliest result at 39.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Benin at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 4.50 against a fair line of 4.17. That translated to an edge of 7.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Benin
39.4%
Market result
Benin
44.4%
BTTS
No
56.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
ZimbabweBenin
Zimbabwe
2
5
Total shots
BeninBenin
Zimbabwe
5
3
Shots on target
Benin
Zimbabwe
2
2
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
4.50
Fair odd
4.17
Edge
7.9%
Stake
0.47u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.