Postmatch editorial

Benin turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Benin 4-0 Lesotho. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Steve Mounié put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Benin led Shots on target 4-0. Benin also shaded Total shots 10-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Benin the likeliest result at 55.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Benin at 68.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.67 against a fair line of 1.63. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Benin

55.0%

Hit

Market result

Benin

68.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

60.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Benin

Benin

Lesotho

4

0

Total shots

Benin

Benin

Lesotho

10

3

Corners

Lesotho

Benin

Lesotho

0

2

Model edge

1

Betfair

Market odd

1.67

Fair odd

1.63

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.12u

That ticket matched the final outcome.