Postmatch editorial
Nicaragua made the numbers look right
The final score was Belize 0-4 Nicaragua. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jaime Moreno scored 89' for Nicaragua.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nicaragua led Shots on target 4-10. Nicaragua also shaded Total shots 10-26.
Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 39.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nicaragua at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.41 against a fair line of 1.39. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nicaragua
39.1%
Market result
Nicaragua
75.2%
BTTS
No
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NicaraguaBelize
Nicaragua
4
10
Total shots
NicaraguaBelize
Nicaragua
10
26
Corners
BelizeBelize
Nicaragua
5
2
Model edge
2
Dafabet
Market odd
1.41
Fair odd
1.39
Edge
1.4%
Stake
1.47u
That ticket matched the final outcome.