Postmatch editorial

The script held and Belgium delivered it

The final score was Belgium 4-3 Wales. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Kevin De Bruyne  scored 88' for Belgium.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Wales led Shots on target 4-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Belgium also shaded Total shots 18-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Belgium the likeliest result at 57.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Belgium at 73.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.46 against a fair line of 1.43. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Belgium

57.6%

Hit

Market result

Belgium

73.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

53.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Wales

Belgium

Wales

4

8

Total shots

Belgium

Belgium

Wales

18

12

Corners

Belgium

Belgium

Wales

7

5

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.46

Fair odd

1.43

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.38u

That ticket matched the final outcome.