Postmatch editorial

Belgium made the numbers look right

The final score was Belgium 1-0 Canada. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Michy Batshuayi put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Canada led Total shots 9-22, even though the scoreboard went another way. Belgium also shaded Possession 54%-46%.

Before kickoff, our model made Belgium the likeliest result at 46.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Belgium at 63.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Sbo. The market was offering 3.25 against a fair line of 3.06. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Belgium

46.7%

Hit

Market result

Belgium

63.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Canada

Belgium

Canada

9

22

Possession

Belgium

Belgium

Canada

54%

46%

Shots on target

Belgium

Canada

3

3

Model edge

1

Sbo

Market odd

3.25

Fair odd

3.06

Edge

6.2%

Stake

1.09u

That ticket matched the final outcome.