Postmatch editorial

Scotland turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Belarus 0-2 Scotland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Ché Adams put the first mark on the match 43', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Scotland led Shots on target 3-8. Scotland also shaded Total shots 6-14.

Before kickoff, our model made Scotland the likeliest result at 55.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Scotland at 69.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.69 against a fair line of 1.65. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Scotland

55.2%

Hit

Market result

Scotland

69.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Scotland

Belarus

Scotland

3

8

Total shots

Scotland

Belarus

Scotland

6

14

Possession

Scotland

Belarus

Scotland

27%

73%

Model edge

2

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.69

Fair odd

1.65

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.27u

That ticket matched the final outcome.