Postmatch editorial

The script held and Bayer 04 Leverkusen delivered it

The final score was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-0 FC Köln. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Martin Terrier put the first mark on the match 66', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bayer 04 Leverkusen led Total shots 17-5. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Corners 8-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 51.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 56.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pncl. The market was offering 1.78 against a fair line of 1.73. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

51.6%

Hit

Market result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

56.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Köln

17

5

Corners

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Köln

8

3

Shots on target

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

FC Köln

6

4

Model edge

1

Pncl

Market odd

1.78

Fair odd

1.73

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.02u

That ticket matched the final outcome.