Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-1 FC Bayern München. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Aleix García put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bayer 04 Leverkusen led Corners 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Total shots 21-11.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 55.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 63.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Bayern München
55.6%
Market result
FC Bayern München
63.9%
BTTS
Yes
54.8%
Match numbers
Corners
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Bayern München
4
1
Total shots
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Bayern München
21
11
Shots on target
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Bayern München
7
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.