Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
FC Augsburg
Postmatch editorial
FC Augsburg flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen struck first through Patrik Schick 12', but FC Augsburg recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bayer 04 Leverkusen led Total shots 36-11, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Shots on target 10-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 58.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 70.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
58.0%
Market result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
70.2%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
36
11
Shots on target
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
10
5
Possession
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
71%
29%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.