Postmatch editorial

Bari 1908 flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Bari 1908 3-1 Modena. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Gabriele Moncini put the first mark on the match 22', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Modena led Total shots 12-19, even though the scoreboard went another way. Modena also shaded Possession 38%-62%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Modena the favourite at 59.3% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Modena

59.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Modena

Bari 1908

Modena

12

19

Possession

Modena

Bari 1908

Modena

38%

62%

Shots on target

Bari 1908

Bari 1908

Modena

8

6