Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Balzan 4-1 Şamaxı FK. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Alfred Effiong put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Şamaxı FK led Corners 2-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Balzan also shaded Shots on target 6-4.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Şamaxı FK the favourite at 41.7% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Şamaxı FK

41.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Şamaxı FK

Balzan

Şamaxı FK

2

7

Shots on target

Balzan

Balzan

Şamaxı FK

6

4

Possession

Şamaxı FK

Balzan

Şamaxı FK

41%

59%