Postmatch editorial
The script held and Costa Rica delivered it
The final score was Bahamas 0-8 Costa Rica. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Álvaro Zamora scored 90' for Costa Rica.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Costa Rica led Shots on target 1-19. Costa Rica also shaded Total shots 1-47.
Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 58.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Costa Rica
58.9%
Market result
Costa Rica
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Costa RicaBahamas
Costa Rica
1
19
Total shots
Costa RicaBahamas
Costa Rica
1
47
Corners
Costa RicaBahamas
Costa Rica
0
10
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.