Postmatch editorial

Iceland found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Azerbaijan 0-2 Iceland. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Albert Gudmundsson put the first mark on the match 20', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Iceland led Shots on target 1-6. Iceland also shaded Total shots 7-17.

Before kickoff, our model made Azerbaijan the likeliest result at 41.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Iceland at 62.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 7.00 against a fair line of 6.35. That translated to an edge of 10.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Azerbaijan

41.3%

Miss

Market result

Iceland

62.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

53.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Iceland

Azerbaijan

Iceland

1

6

Total shots

Iceland

Azerbaijan

Iceland

7

17

Corners

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan

Iceland

8

4

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

7.00

Fair odd

6.35

Edge

10.2%

Stake

0.35u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.