Azerbaijan
France won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
France
Postmatch editorial
The script held and France delivered it
The final score was Azerbaijan 1-3 France. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Azerbaijan struck first through Renat Dadashov 4', but France recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: France led Shots on target 1-4. France also shaded Total shots 2-17.
Before kickoff, our model made France the likeliest result at 69.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced France at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.18 against a fair line of 1.17. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
France
69.7%
Market result
France
89.3%
BTTS
No
60.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FranceAzerbaijan
France
1
4
Total shots
FranceAzerbaijan
France
2
17
Corners
FranceAzerbaijan
France
1
8
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
1.18
Fair odd
1.17
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.40u
That ticket matched the final outcome.