Postmatch editorial

Arezzo flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Avellino 1-2 Arezzo. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Avellino struck first through Raffaele Russo 15', but Arezzo recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Avellino led Corners 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Avellino also shaded Possession 60%-40%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Avellino the favourite at 45.6% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Avellino

45.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Avellino

Avellino

Arezzo

4

2

Possession

Avellino

Avellino

Arezzo

60%

40%

Total shots

Arezzo

Avellino

Arezzo

11

15