Postmatch editorial
Auxerre turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Auxerre 3-1 Angers SCO. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Sékou Mara put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Auxerre led Shots on target 10-3. Auxerre also shaded Total shots 19-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Auxerre the likeliest result at 46.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Auxerre at 58.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.7%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Auxerre
46.3%
Market result
Auxerre
58.5%
BTTS
No
52.7%
Match numbers
Shots on target
AuxerreAuxerre
Angers SCO
10
3
Total shots
AuxerreAuxerre
Angers SCO
19
9
Corners
Angers SCOAuxerre
Angers SCO
4
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.