Postmatch editorial

Auxerre turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Auxerre 3-1 Angers SCO. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Sékou Mara put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Auxerre led Shots on target 10-3. Auxerre also shaded Total shots 19-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Auxerre the likeliest result at 46.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Auxerre at 58.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.7%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Auxerre

46.3%

Hit

Market result

Auxerre

58.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Auxerre

Auxerre

Angers SCO

10

3

Total shots

Auxerre

Auxerre

Angers SCO

19

9

Corners

Angers SCO

Auxerre

Angers SCO

4

6

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.