Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Austria 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Michael Gregoritsch 77', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Austria led Shots on target 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Austria also shaded Possession 70%-30%.

Before kickoff, our model made Austria the likeliest result at 72.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Austria at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.88 against a fair line of 2.73. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Austria

72.8%

Miss

Market result

Austria

75.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

56.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Austria

Austria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

3

1

Possession

Austria

Austria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

70%

30%

Corners

Austria

Austria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

4

2

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

2.88

Fair odd

2.73

Edge

5.5%

Stake

1.30u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.