Australia
Australia won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Türkiye
Postmatch editorial
Australia bent the night away from the script
The final score was Australia 2-0 Türkiye. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Connor Metcalfe scored 75' for Australia.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Türkiye led Total shots 9-30, even though the scoreboard went another way. Türkiye also shaded Shots on target 4-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Türkiye the likeliest result at 55.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Türkiye at 59.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Türkiye
55.2%
Market result
Türkiye
59.2%
BTTS
Yes
59.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TürkiyeAustralia
Türkiye
9
30
Shots on target
TürkiyeAustralia
Türkiye
4
8
Possession
TürkiyeAustralia
Türkiye
28%
72%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.