Australia
Australia won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Japan
Postmatch editorial
Australia found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Australia 1-0 Japan. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Aziz Behich scored 90' for Australia.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Australia led Shots on target 3-1. Japan also shaded Corners 1-8.
Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Australia at 38.0% implied.
Prediction checks
Market result
Australia
38.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
AustraliaAustralia
Japan
3
1
Corners
JapanAustralia
Japan
1
8
Total shots
JapanAustralia
Japan
6
13
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.