Australia
Australia won after full-time.
5 - 1
FT
Indonesia
Postmatch editorial
Australia found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Australia 5-1 Indonesia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jackson Irvine scored 90' for Australia.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Australia led Shots on target 7-4. Indonesia also shaded Possession 40%-60%.
Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Australia at 64.5% implied.
Prediction checks
Market result
Australia
64.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
AustraliaAustralia
Indonesia
7
4
Possession
IndonesiaAustralia
Indonesia
40%
60%
Corners
IndonesiaAustralia
Indonesia
5
7
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.