Postmatch editorial
Atlético de Madrid turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Atlético de Madrid 3-0 Mallorca. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Thiago Almada scored 87' for Atlético de Madrid.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Atlético de Madrid led Shots on target 8-1. Atlético de Madrid also shaded Total shots 17-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Atlético de Madrid the likeliest result at 71.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atlético de Madrid at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.48 against a fair line of 1.45. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atlético de Madrid
71.6%
Market result
Atlético de Madrid
75.2%
BTTS
No
58.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Mallorca
8
1
Total shots
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Mallorca
17
6
Corners
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Mallorca
10
3
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.48
Fair odd
1.45
Edge
2.1%
Stake
1.43u
That ticket matched the final outcome.