Atlético de Madrid
Atlético Madrid won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Getafe
Postmatch editorial
Atlético de Madrid made the numbers look right
The final score was Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Getafe. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Nahuel Molina put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Atlético de Madrid led Total shots 16-7. Atlético de Madrid also shaded Corners 10-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Atlético de Madrid the likeliest result at 64.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atlético de Madrid at 60.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.73 against a fair line of 1.68. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atlético de Madrid
64.7%
Market result
Atlético de Madrid
60.6%
BTTS
No
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Getafe
16
7
Corners
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Getafe
10
3
Shots on target
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Getafe
5
3
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.73
Fair odd
1.68
Edge
3.0%
Stake
1.07u
That ticket matched the final outcome.