Atlético de Madrid
Celta de Vigo won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Celta de Vigo
Postmatch editorial
Celta de Vigo bent the night away from the script
The final score was Atlético de Madrid 0-1 Celta de Vigo. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Borja Iglesias put the first mark on the match 62', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atlético de Madrid led Shots on target 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atlético de Madrid also shaded Total shots 20-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Atlético de Madrid the likeliest result at 58.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atlético de Madrid at 54.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.5%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.21 against a fair line of 2.12. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atlético de Madrid
58.6%
Market result
Atlético de Madrid
54.9%
BTTS
No
50.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Celta de Vigo
4
1
Total shots
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Celta de Vigo
20
3
Corners
Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
Celta de Vigo
10
0
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
2.21
Fair odd
2.12
Edge
4.2%
Stake
0.82u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.