Athletic Club
Villarreal won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Villarreal
Postmatch editorial
Villarreal bent the night away from the script
The final score was Athletic Club 1-2 Villarreal. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Sergi Cardona put the first mark on the match 26', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Athletic Club led Corners 15-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Athletic Club also shaded Total shots 18-12.
Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 46.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.28 against a fair line of 2.19. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Athletic Club
46.2%
Market result
Athletic Club
48.8%
BTTS
Yes
55.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Villarreal
15
3
Total shots
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Villarreal
18
12
Possession
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Villarreal
61%
39%
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.28
Fair odd
2.19
Edge
4.1%
Stake
0.81u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.