Athletic Club
Valencia won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Valencia
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Umar Sadiq put the first mark on the match 72', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Athletic Club led Total shots 14-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Athletic Club also shaded Corners 13-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 59.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Athletic Club
48.0%
Market result
Athletic Club
59.9%
BTTS
No
51.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Valencia
14
7
Corners
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Valencia
13
5
Shots on target
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Valencia
4
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.