Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Atalanta 2-2 Udinese. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Gianluca Scamacca 79', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atalanta led Total shots 22-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atalanta also shaded Shots on target 4-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Atalanta the likeliest result at 61.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atalanta at 58.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.74 against a fair line of 1.69. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Atalanta

61.7%

Miss

Market result

Atalanta

58.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Atalanta

Atalanta

Udinese

22

8

Shots on target

Atalanta

Atalanta

Udinese

4

2

Corners

Atalanta

Atalanta

Udinese

11

3

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.74

Fair odd

1.69

Edge

3.0%

Stake

1.05u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.